In the early hours of January 3, Donald Trump ordered a surprise attack on the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, to kidnap the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Millions of Venezuelan lives have been thrown into uncertainty. Politicians at home and abroad scrambled to respond. It looks like it was something no one saw coming. Except someone predicted it.
In the hours before the attack, someone – and we don’t know who – placed a series of bets that Donald Trump would oust Maduro on a prediction market platform, earning them almost $500,000 if it happened. These platforms allow their users not only to bet on who will win the Super Bowl, but also on world events. Heavily regulated under the Biden administration, these apps have enjoyed a huge surge in popularity since Trump came to power.
The Atlantic’s senior editor, Saahil Desai, explains them to Annie Kelly. “They are called prediction markets because these sites are thought to be very similar to stock markets. The idea is that you put money based on what you think will happen. And in that sense, prediction markets allow you to predict the future. But really, it’s just a nice way to bet.”
He explains why the fact that media organizations are collaborating with prediction market platforms is a worrying trend. “Let’s say you’re a donor to a major candidate for the Senate. You can put millions of dollars in the prediction market when your preferred candidate is going to win and change the odds. And so you can really shape media coverage in a way that you can’t with traditional polling.
But how do they work, why are they so big news in the US and why does Trump want to put his own?
Archive sources: NBC, BBC, CBS, CNN, CNBC, Daily Mail, 60 Minutes
