The crowd, wearing orange One Nation T-shirts and flying Australian flags, looked certain they were in the winner’s circle, with shouts of “prime minister” heard in the rabble.
The pack welcomed Pauline Hanson and her new recruit, former Liberal turned Sky News commentator Cory Bernardi, to Adelaide on Tuesday high on the news of a surge in the polls.
March’s election in South Australia will be the first real test of the growing One Nation vote that has fueled the turmoil in the federal Coalition – or the alliance it used to be known as.
Hanson has historically been a leader who inspires absolute devotion, which is often followed by rapid departures, disorganization, disqualification, and complaints that he runs a “dictatorship”.
Will his tactics work in SA, where the Liberal party is in a particularly parlous state, and the Labor vote is very strong?
Retired ABC election guru Antony Green maps the One Nation poll federal and found in the “first 25 seats to watch”, 12 in Queensland and just one in SA.
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That one seat is Barker, held by Liberal Tony Pasin – an ally of conservative power player and fellow backbencher Alex Antic.
So the national figure of a 22% primary vote for One Nation may not continue in SA.
The October poll put Labor state in a two-party favorite leading 66 to the Liberal party’s 34 – the premier, Peter Malinauskas, was clearly headed for a landslide victory under the numbers.
But since then, opposition leader Vincent Tarzia has stood down in favor of rising star and moderate Ashton Hurn – which could have an impact on the numbers.
Bernardi and Hanson seem optimistic about taking seats in the lower house.
With generous financial support, better campaigning and better candidates than they’ve managed in the past, and a change in mood that colors unpredictable three-way contests – they might.
But their real hope is to win a seat or two in the state’s upper house – and both hope to be in opposition.
“Even if we have one seat, we have five seats or 22 seats, we are the strongest voice of opposition that this government has ever faced,” Bernardi said.
“We will contest every seat. We have a full ticket in the upper house. We will work hard for our candidates, and I hope they will all be rewarded.
“Actually, I want to be the official opposition in this state. But you know?
In the upper house, 11 seats were prepared – and it was a grabbing bag of people, many of whom were singing from the same song sheet as One Nation.
And Bernardi isn’t the only former Liberal in the mix.
Former Liberal member turned Family First senator Bob Day will run candidates in both houses for the Australian Family Party. Day’s former chief of staff Rikki Lambert is running for the Nationals. The Family First candidate is former Liberal candidate Deepa Mathew.
Jing Lee, who quit the Liberals after being caught up in the rightwing abortion bill debacle, is running as an independent.
There is another element of unpredictability in the rise of One Nation. The anti-woke, anti-Islam, anti-immigration, anti-multiculturalism, anti-renewables mob found their voice in March for the protests in Australia and through One Nation.
But there may be a cohort in these latest polls who refuse to actually tick the One Nation box when it matters. And it will be reinforced by the voter experience as the campaign trail heats up.
At Tuesday’s press conference, the crowd’s cheers turned to jeers when Hanson was asked a tough question by Guardian Australia’s Sarah Martin about failing to declare flights on billionaire Gina Rinehart’s private jet.
Hanson struggled to come up with a coherent answer, and his supporters erupted in anger at the question. “Who cares?” they shouted to the press, as people began to run towards each other. “Did you have breakfast?”
“What is your agenda?” Carlos Quaremba said, and repeated it. This was almost the only contribution to the press conference for the One Nation state president, who was relegated to second place on Bernardi’s ticket.
But a more disturbing response to a reporter’s valid question came from someone in the crowd who was heard to say: “He’s going to be killed.”