Sussan Ley has had to reshuffle her shadow shadow twice in her six short months as leader of the Liberal Party.
The first is the replacement of the price of Jacinta Nampijinpa, whose refusal to apologize for incorrect and hurtful claims about the leadership of India, found the position ahead of her.
The second is to deal with Andrew Chastie, who has lifted himself off the backbench to champion his nationalist agenda.
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The opposition leader will soon be forced into a third, unwanted reshuffle, as the fight over Net Zero Qissions instigates the end of the earth.
As the MPS prepares for a series of meetings starting on Wednesday to settle a position on the climate target dispute, a set of hypothetical situations is not ideal.
Before dealing with the potential ramifications of any decision, it is worth considering how the debate has so rapidly escalated into an internal political battle.
In the 24 hours after the national decision in November to abandon its commitment to NET ZERO, senior liberal conservatives aggressively contradicted the target. Not just Scott Morrison’s target – any target at all.
The united front appeared in the corner of Ley, for whom Net Zero Qissions is not only a question of policy but a proxy battle for leadership.
Since the coordinated conversation of the right faction, moderate liberal and private campaign to salvage some Net Zero commitments – although not the mid-term deadline promised by Morrison.
“They don’t know what we’re up to,” a moderate liberal said.
One goal of pro-net liberals is to ensure that there is a “transaction cost” – a political price to be paid or watered on the climate.
On Sunday, moderate liberal senator Andrew Bragg, threatened to quit serving in the shadow if the Party walks away from the Paris Agreement and any commitment to Net Zero.
On Monday, in no less clear terms, Bragg’s Factional Ally, Maria Kovacicwhich issued the same ultimatum.
“As in any area of policy, if the Rood Party decides on a policy that cannot be carried out in a single shade, they must resign and move to nine papers.
The message is clear. If Ley Dumps Net Zero in general he will pay the price of losing the MPs who intervened in his leadership.
How other moderates on the frontbench, including Tim Wilson and Anne Royon, intend to act on the possible junking of net zero is less clear.
The risks of resignation do not rest only on one outcome.
A senior liberal source told Australia’s Guardian that some members of the Shadow Ministry who want NET Zero weakened should consider their position if a strong target is maintained.
Ley could still get away with a compromise.
Australia Australia spoke to several MPs on Monday who believed there was some cross-factional support for a net zero position, or preserved it as an “aspiration”, but remained committed to the Paris agreement.
Nationalists may accept this approach given that it largely reflects itself.
Such a position can be maintained going forward, Ley’s leadership and the Liberal-National Coalition in Tact – for now.
But it leaves the leader, and what some truly climate-conscious minds are, saddened by a policy that is hardly credible.
It doesn’t take an expert in international climate negotiations to know that a future Clapion Government could be caught violating the Paris Agreement if there is a “backslide” to Net Zero in 2050.
Australia doesn’t need to withdraw from Paris – as Donald Trump has done twice in the US – to also become an international Pariah on climate action.