Peter MumbyThe Great Barrier Reef is headed for a “dire future” and will suffer a “rapid reef decline” but parts could recover below 2C, a new study has found.
Researchers at the University of Queensland (UQ) have used climate change to track the lives of certain types of reef and found that some are better adapted to warmer oceans and some help warming oceans and help new reefs.
The reefs near the cooler-water currents are more resilient, which gives a “glimmer of hope” to the natural wonder, which has suffered from extreme climate heat in recent years.
The study warns that curbing carbon emissions is essential to allow corals to recover and avoid an “imminent collapse” of the reef.
Dr Yves-Marie Bozec, who led the research, said the modeling of more than 3,800 individual reefs that make up the Great Barrier Reef looked at their “Eco-evolutionary dynamics”. This includes how corals interact with each other, how they cope with warmer water and corals in naturally coolest areas.
“We run all the factors at the top of climate understandings – and the news is not good,” he said.
“We estimate a sharp decline in the fence before the middle of this century regardless of the release scenario.”
The Great Barrier Reef is one of the largest ecosystems in the world, covering more than 2,300km (1,400 miles) of the north-east coast.
It has suffered four significant heath wathwaves between 2016 and 2022, causing much of its enclosure to expel the algae that give it its life and color – a process called bleaching, which is often fatal.
A recent report found that parts of the Great Barrier Reef have suffered the greatest annual decline in Coral Cover since records began nearly 40 years ago.
Dr Bozec said some parts of the reef “could partially recover after 2050, but only if the ocean warms enough to keep up with the temperature changes”.
“Adaptation can continue if global warming does not exceed two degrees by 2100. Because it must be the most active carbon emissions that change the climate.”
Dr Bozec said: “The window for meaningful action is fast but it is not closed”.
Under the Paris agreement, nearly 200 countries have pledged to limit global warming to 1.5C and to maintain pre-industrial levels, largely defined as the late 19th century.
Proa Peter Mumby, who also worked on the study, said they found “many reefs that will continue under the target of the Paris agreement of two degrees of warming”.
“However, higher emissions leading to faster temperature increases will drive most reeds to a near collapse,” he said.
Prof Murphy said in areas where “the water is not too warm because it is well mixed, it is better for the corals to be healthier.
Identifying areas of the reef network that are most meaningful efforts to protect the reef can focus on the “strategic part” of the ecosystem, he added.